While the debate continues over an Indian Point shut down, it is essential that we focus on the many issues relating to Indian Point on which all views converge. All agree that the irradiated spent fuel rods stored at Indian Point, and which will be there for at least 10 more years if not forever, must be secured more safely as quickly as possible. All agree that we need an effective evacuation plan (even though many believe it can never work in the event of a catastrophic radiological event). All agree that we must move towards a sustainable energy future with conservation, efficiency and renewable energy.

Expeditious progress on these matters should not take a back seat while the public debate as to Indian Point’s future goes forward. At the same time, the importance of the debate over the shut down of Indian Point mandates that it not be deferred while these issues are pursued. We can and must move forward on multiple tracks.

The area of divergence boils down to a very simple equation - it pits those that are not willing to take the risk, concededly small, of a catastrophic radiological release from a plant with a long and continuing history of serious problems in this densely populated region against those who are. While we all take risks every day when we get into our car or board an airplane, those risks jeopardize only a few.

The risk here is of dramatically different proportions in a world in which terrorist groups commit acts of war and mass destruction. It is in this context that the decision must be made. Here are some of the issues relevant to this debate.

Population density

At the time the decision was made to site Indian Point in its current location the Nuclear Regulatory Commission ( NRC) , the federal agency that regulates the nuclear industry, had not yet issued the siting guidelines now in effect. Over 20 million people live within 50 miles of Indian Point, an area which includes virtually all of New York City. With that population density no nuclear power plant could be sited in Westchester County today. Robert Ryan, NRC’s former Director of the Office of State Programs summed it up: “I think it is insane to have a three unit reactor on the Hudson River in Westchester County 40 miles from Times Square… Its a nightmare from the point of view of nuclear preparedness.”

Indian Point’s Safety Record

The NRC has a five-category system that rates the performance of nuclear plants and determines the level of federal control needed to ensure that they are run correctly. Indian Point 2 has been given a red designation, one step away from the “unacceptable performance” rank which requires a plant to close.

Indian Point has had a troubled history and has continued to have both plant and personnel problems even during the last several months. In February of this year, Indian Point reported small leaks of radioactive coolant into the clean water in the power generating system. Also in February, Entergy reported small areas of rust in the steel lining of the containment building, an example of the kinds of unexpected problems aging nuclear plants can have, and of particular concern in the wake of the finding last month of corrosion in the Davis-Besse nuclear reactor in Ohio, which left less than half an inch of the original six inches of stainless steel to protect the top of the reactor. Also, in relicensing exams conducted last fall, four of Entergy’s seven control room operating crews failed the exam.

Risk of an Incident

President Bush, in his state of the union address in January, said that diagrams of American nuclear power plants were found in the al Qaeda camps. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld told the county in January to be prepared for surprise attacks that would be “vastly more deadly” than the September 11 catastrophe. According to the NRC, nuclear power plant containment domes were not designed to withstand the crash of a large fuel laden jumbo jet such as we had at the World Trade Center. In October of 2000 an NRC report stated that one out of two commercial airliners would penetrate 5 feet of concrete 45% of the time. The Indian Point containment dome has 3.5 feet of concrete at the top and the spent fuel rod pools at Indian Point have only 5-8 inches of concrete in their roof.

Nor can the risk of human and mechanical failures be totally discounted. The Three Mile Island incident was the result of a sequence of mechanical failures in several different safety systems and repeated human errors. Last month’s possible meltdown in Ohio was attributed by the NRC to the operator’s failure to properly perform required programs which would have identified the corrosion problem as much as four years ago. Such occurrences could be of special concern in an old plant like Indian Point with a backlog of over 2000 required repair items.

Health Consequences

Releases of radioactive isotopes can cause changes in DNA, death, cancer and other injuries. According to a 1982 study performed by Sandia Labs for the NRC (“the CRAC-2 study”), a meltdown at the Indian Point Unit 2 reactor could cause “46,000 Peak Early Fatalities, 141,000 Peak Early Injuries, [and] 13,000 Peak Deaths from cancer.” A meltdown of the Indian Point Unit 3 reactors could cause “50,000 Peak Early Fatalities, 167,000 Peak Early Injuries, [and] 14,000 Peak Deaths from cancer.” This data assumes a “successful” evacuation, does not include the increase in the population since 1982 within the two radius zones (17.5 and 50 miles) and only refers to first year impacts.

Economic consequences

The CRAC-2 study also estimated economic damage. It estimated peak property damages from a meltdown of Unit 2 as $274 billion and from Unit 3 as $314 billion. Adjusting the $588 billion in 1982 dollars for inflation leads to a number twice as high. That number does not include potential damage from the spent fuel rods. The NRC now rejects the CRAC-2 study it had commissioned but has no plans to conduct a new one.

Any property damage would not be recoverable by individuals as insurance companies refuse to insure against nuclear incidents. Home owners insurance policies explicitly exempt the carrier from liability in the event of damage resulting from nuclear hazards. Federal legislation caps the liability of nuclear power plants operators for accidents or attacks at $9.4 billion nationwide.

The Evacuation Plan

The NRC and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) require that nuclear facility emergency evacuation plans “adequately protect health and safety”. State assemblyman Richard Brodsky, who conducted hearings on the matter as Chair of the State Assembly Committee on the Environment, concluded that the Indian Point evacuation plan fails to meet that standard. The deficiencies and questionable assumptions in the plan, according to Brodsky, include the following:

• The Plan relies on outdated population data and calculates estimated travel times using old data which fails to take into account new developments and our congested road conditions.

• The Plan assumes no spontaneous evacuation by people outside the 10 mile zone, while at Three Mile Island an evacuation of 3,400 people was expected based on the advisory but 144,000 people actually fled.

• The plan assumes that parents will not go to pick up their children from school.

• The Plan assumes that emergency personnel will reenter the zone repeatedly to evacuate people, even if faced with conflicting personal obligations.

• The Plan assumes that there will be several hours of lead time between the activation of the emergency operations and the actual release of radiation. It is undisputed that there are scenarios that would not afford that time. In addition, only a ten mile radius is covered while NRC studies extend to 17.5 and 50 miles.

Electricity Supply and Pricing

The Indian Point Nuclear Plants produce approximately 2000 megawatts of electricity when both of its units are operating at capacity. An analysis of the impact of a shut down, should include the following facts:

An impact on pricing and reliability due to a shut down of Indian Point would be limited to the summer months of peak demand. There is plenty of electricity the rest of the year. Even during the summer, there is the desired cushion of 18% available supply over demand. A shut down of Indian Point would lead to that reserve margin being reduced to 11% according to the NYS Independent Systems Operator, the overseer of the state’s wholesale power market.

There are already new power plants coming on line, which will replace the power now provided by Indian Point by the summer of 2004.

The impact of an Indian Point shut down can be mitigated by consumer behavior. Any short term impact occasioned by tight supply can be avoided by a combination of energy efficiency, conservation and load management. California successfully used energy efficiency, conservation and load management to reduce its peak demand by 12.2 percent between June of 2000 and June of 2001, after adjusting for weather.

If state and local authorities, Con Ed and its customers work together to promptly develop and implement effective programs, the same can be done in New York.

The electricity price spikes of 25 - 40 percent mentioned as possible in the press are wholesale prices and are based on prior demand with no conservation measures. The impact on the average customer’s electric bill would be considerably lower. Wholesale energy prices constitute only 30-50% of the retail electric bill during the summer, so a 25-40 per cent increase in wholesale prices translate into a 8-20 per cent increase in the average summer electric bill. Taking the highest of these projections shows that an average monthly bill of $100 would increase by $20 per month for the summer months or $40 for the whole year.

Safer Closed?

Several facts are relevant to an analysis of whether there is any point to shutting the plants down in the face of the continued presence on site of the irradiated spent fuel rods, the byproduct of the fission process.

First, several of the radioactive isotopes produced by the fission reaction that pose the greatest health risk have very short half lives. For example, Iodine 131, the principal contributor to thyroid cancer, has a half life of 8 days. As a rule of thumb radioactive materials are considered hazardous for 10 half lives. So three months after the plant is shut down and the fission reaction process terminated, health risk from exposure to iodine 131 is effectively eliminated.

Based on a preliminary analysis by the Nuclear Control Institute, after a shut down of 20 days the number of fatalities from a core melt down and breach of containment could be reduced by 80% and the number of long term cancer deaths by 50%.

Second, soon after the reactor is shut down the risks of a reactor melt down are significantly reduced and our concerns about the adequacy of the containment dome become moot.

Third, with a shut down, the production of additional spent fuel rods will cease and attention can be devoted to storing the existing spent fuel rods more safely.

Conclusion

Ultimately the question to be addressed is whether we should take the risk of a radiological incident to preserve the energy afforded by Indian Point. Indian Point will shut down some day as all plants have a finite useful life. The operating licenses expire in about ten years and have not been renewed to date.

Thus the question is not whether Indian Point should be closed, but when. Federated Conservationists of Westchester County, Inc. has concluded that Indian Point should be decommissioned now; in the current international climate we must move rapidly towards a safer future.

Edna Sussman is the Executive Director of the Federated Conservationists of Westchester County, Inc.